Using Statistics Canada LifePaths Microsimulation Model to Project the Health Status of Canadian Elderly

Complex population projections usually use microsimulation models; in Canada, Statistics Canada has developed a global dynamic microsimulation model named LifePaths in the Modgen programming language to be used in policy research. LifePaths provides a platform to build on for our research program, conjointly with Dr Janice Keefe from Mount Saint Vincent University, on projections of the Canadian chronic homecare needs for the elderly up to 2031 and of the human resources required. Beside marital status, family networks and living arrangements, future health status of the elderly is a key variable, but an intricate one. Since health status transitions were previously conditioned only on age and sex, we will use here the current disability module of LifePaths with longitudinal data from Canada’s National Population Health Survey (NPHS). These new health status transitions are considering other significant explicative variables like marital status, education etc. We will then present projections of future Canadian elderly by health status and a comparison with nine European countries for the Future Elderly Living Conditions in Europe (FELICIE) Research Program which has used the same approach. Our previous researches have shown the importance of future disability level for the management of an elderly society. The main output of the present paper would first produce, with new health scenarios, new estimates for Canada of elderly in poor health, for those aged 75 and over. Secondly, it would produce an interesting comparative analysis, useful especially for implementing new policies for the well-being of the Canadian elderly.Microsimulation, Elderly population, Aging, LifePaths, Health, Canada

Using Statistics Canada LifePaths Microsimulation Model to Project the Disability Status of Canadian Elderly

Complex population projections usually use microsimulation models; in Canada, Statistics Canada has developed a global dynamic microsimulation model named LifePaths in the Modgen programming language to be used in policy research. LifePaths provides a platform to build on for our research program, conjointly with Dr Janice Keefe from Mount Saint Vincent University, on projections of the Canadian chronic homecare needs for the elderly up to 2031 and of the human resources required. Beside marital status, family networks and living arrangements, future disability status of the elderly is a key variable, but an intricate one. Since disability status transitions were previously conditioned only on age and sex, we will use here the current disability module of LifePaths with longitudinal data from Canada’s National Population Health Survey (NPHS). These new disability status transitions are considering other significant explicative variables like marital status, education etc. We will then present projections of future Canadian elderly by disability status and a comparison with nine European countries for the Future Elderly Living Conditions in Europe (FELICIE) Research Program which has used the same approach. Our previous researches have shown the importance of future disability level for the management of an elderly society. The main output of the present paper would first produce, with new health scenarios, new estimates for Canada of elderly in poor health, for those aged 75 and over. Secondly, it would produce an interesting comparative analysis, useful especially for implementing new policies for the well-being of the Canadian elderly.Microsimulation, Elderly population, Aging, LifePaths, Health, Disability, Canada

Le vieillissement des populations : incontournable certes… mais un plus, s’il est géré dans un esprit d’éthique intergénérationnelle

Le vieillissement des individus, ainsi que celui des populations, doit être vu comme un phénomène très positif. L’arrivée des baby-boomers dans les âges de la retraite et de la vieillesse devra cependant être bien prise en main pour éviter des dérapages. À partir de l’exemple du Québec, on décrira comment faire pour éviter certains effets pervers de l’État providence face à une évolution démographique non envisagée lors de son établissement. Il y a donc lieu de revoir les modalités de nos programmes sociaux de santé et de retraite pour faciliter une gérance de la vie en société qui soit équitable pour toutes les générations.The aging of individuals, like that of populations, is a positive thing. Nonetheless, baby boomers’ move into retirement and old age will have to be managed carefully and appropriately. Taking Quebec as an example, we describe how certain possible perverse effects of the welfare state can be avoided by dealing with demographic changes not expected when it was set up. The terms and conditions of our health care and retirement programs should be reviewed so as to facilitate better social relations and ensure the situation remains equitable for all generations

The Diversification and the Privatization of the Sources of Retirement Income in Canada

Recent labour market developments in the context of population ageing have generated many changes concerning sources of retirement income. More precisely, this paper, which is based on two Statistics Canada surveys (Survey of Consumer Finances and Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics,) will look at the processes of diversification and privatisation of income sources of Canada’s retirees during the period 1980-2002. This study has used the concept of individualized income based on the economic family in order to consider economies of scale and revenue sharing. An appropriate assessment of the composition of retirement income sources has been realized, while discerning five distinct categories: net government transfer payments, CPP/QPP benefits, private pensions, investment income and employment income. The situation of older women living alone and of older immigrants has been more carefully analyzed in order to detect some particularities among those two vulnerable groups. The results of this study demonstrate that retirees’ income composition has undergone many changes. In addition, sources of retirement income have become substantially more diversified and privatized during the period under study. These adjustments are becoming essential in western societies in order to overcome the obstacles caused by population ageing that could disrupt pension systems.Retirement, pensions, financial security, Canada

Developing New Strategies to Support Future Caregivers of the Aged in Canada: Projections of Need and their Policy Implications

Projections of future need for Canadian continuing care services typically uses current utilization patterns and population aging. Accurately assessing this need is much more complex since disability patterns among the elderly are changing and availability of caregivers is affected by changes in family structure. This paper projects annual growth rates between 2001-2031 in the need for informal and formal support among elderly Canadians and discusses the policy implications of the increasing demand for informal caregivers. Using Statistics Canada's LifePaths micro-simulation model, these projections incorporate disability rates and the potential availability of informal caregivers. The authors conclude that continued focus on family to meet the needs of elderly Canadians without increased support is not sustainable in the long term. New strategies to support Canadian caregivers are proposed and their economic feasibility in the public and private markets are evaluated.population aging, caregiving, disability, informal and formal support

La pr�paration financi�re � la retraite des premiers boomers: une comparaison Qu�bec-Ontario

Since 2006, baby-boomers are beginning to reach the age of 60. This historic milestone forecasts serious challenges for our societies. In particular, the financial security of future pensioners constitutes an important issue. The present study will attempt to assess the financial preparation for retirement of the Quebec first cohorts of baby boomers born in 1946- 1955, who will retire in the forthcoming years, by comparing their situation with their Ontarian counterparts. This study is composed of four distinct parts. First, the methodology of the study will be explained. After a literature review, some indicators will be selected to measure the financial preparation to retirement from three points of view. Thus, the objective health of the financial preparation to retirement will be analyzed by comparing Quebec and Ontario. The relative situation of the Quebec first cohorts of baby boomers, illustrated by their revenue, their housing status and their patrimony, will also be explained. The third part of the study tries to compare the first cohorts of baby boomers’ subjective health of the preparation for retirement between the two provinces, for some socioeconomic categories, by using data concerning their satisfaction and their perspectives toward this issue. Finally, this study ends with a comparison of the various strategies used by the Quebec and Ontario first cohorts of baby boomers in order to assure themselves a suitable financial security for retirement, considering the actual trends of the socioeconomic conditions. The data analyzed come from various Statistics Canada surveys. In particular, demographic census data were used for the period covering 1971-2001, as well as the Survey of Financial Security (SFS) for 1999 and General Social Survey (GSS) for 2002.Baby-boomers, retirement, financial suitability, Quebec, Ontario

Les religieuses du Canada : leur évolution numérique entre 1965 et 1980

L'enquête réalisée en 1965 par la Conférence religieuse canadienne (section féminine) auprès des communautés religieuses du pays a apporté des précisions sur une situation de fait que l'on soupçonnait déjà, mais dont l'ampleur et le rythme d'évolution donnaient lieu à une marge considérable de spéculations.L'analyse de ce recensement des religieuses tentait de définir leur situation actuelle à partir de divers critères tels que l'âge, les origines familiales, les qualifications académiques, etc. . . . De plus, à l'aide de quelques questions rétrospectives, il fut possible d'estimer l'évolution qu'a subie cette population au cours de la période 1940-1964, ainsi que les tendances qui se dessinent en ce qui concerne son renouvellement et sa structure future. Les deux phénomènes les plus caractéristiques de la situation actuelle chez les religieuses se sont révélés être le vieillissement incontestable de cette population et la baisse générale du recrutement, baisse qui se manifeste depuis 1940, mais qui s'est accentuée entre 1960 et 1965.2 À preuve ce commentaire des analystes : « Nous n'avons pu établir de projections scientifiques — pour le problème du recrutement cela est d'ailleurs difficile — mais la diminution très forte entre 1960 (1,981 entrées au noviciat) et 1964 (1,377) donne tout lieu de croire que ce phénomène de baisse continuera quelques années avant de se stabiliser ».Devant de telles conclusions, il nous a semblé intéressant de tenter de tracer, à partir des données rassemblées par cette enquête, un schéma de l'évolution démographique future des religieuses canadiennes. L'entreprise n'est pas simple. Tout un ensemble de facteurs sociaux complexes et difficilement prévisibles peuvent venir bouleverser nos projections, si méticuleusement eussent-elles été préparées : c'est là un risque qui menace fort souvent le démographe qui ose prétendre soulever le voile de l'avenir. Dans le cas présent, nous croyons ce risque raisonnable et comme pouvant être utile. En effet le souci de ceux qui ordonnent ces enquêtes auprès des membres de communautés religieuses est en général de vouloir connaître non seulement le présent mais aussi un peu l'avenir. L'analyse de l'enquête faite au Canada n'a pas été très explicite sur ce sujet. Il en est d'ailleurs de même pour l'analyse de l'enquête qui avait été demandée par la Commission épiscopale du clergé et des séminaires de France. Pour ce faire, il faut la connaissance de certaines techniques de prévisions démographiques et, il faut l'admettre, un peu d'audace. Ceci dit, nous croyons valables les calculs que nous avons effectués, calculs qui nous permettent, à partir de l'évolution passée et de certaines hypothèses, d'entrevoir comment évoluera la situation au cours des quinze prochaines années. Notre but est donc d'établir les effectifs globaux et les distributions par groupe d'âges des religieuses canadiennes en 1970, 1975 et 1980, compte tenu de l'évolution récente qui s'est manifestée dans ce groupe.En analyse démographique, toute perspective repose évidemment sur l'analyse des phénomènes de fécondité, de mortalité et de migration de la population concernée. Le lecteur comprendra facilement que l'on doive effectuer pour le cas présent quelques transpositions d'ordre technique: entrée en religion, mortalité et non-persévérance dans les ordres constitueront donc les trois phénomènes à la base de nos perspectives. Avant d'analyser l'évolution passée et future par rapport aux trois phénomènes décrits ci-haut, nous passerons en revue quelques-uns des résultats de l'enquête de 1965, lesquels nous permettront de connaître la situation en l'année de base de nos perspectives

Les g�n�rations X et Y du Qu�bec, vraiment diff�rentes des pr�c�dentes ?

Many myths surround the Generation X members. Among them, the term "McJobs" is often used to describe the difficulties they have experienced on the labour market. It is justified to claim that they had a more complicated career path in comparison with other generations. However, what is really going on? Who are they really? This paper paints a portrait of both the Generation X, whose members were born between 1965 and 1975, and of their successors, the members of the Generation Y, who were born between 1975 and 1985. More precisely, this research will put emphasis on some highlights about the behaviour of the X and Y in Quebec contemporary society. This study will examine the themes of family, their attitude toward the labour market and saving. In order to have a better understanding of the extent of the differences observed, both groups will be compared with the baby boomers [who were divided in two subgroups, the old boomers (1945-1954) and the young boomers (1955-1964)]. The research findings coming from this analysis are numerous. We learn, among other things, that the X and the Y have fairly different behaviours than the baby boomers. Overall, these two birth cohorts had to go through a clearly less comfortable situation than the baby boomers. However, we also learn that the situation experienced by the young boomers, in some areas, is not very distant from what the Generation X is going through. However, the X will have to invest a lot in order to face retirement issues.Generation X, GenerationY, Unemployment, Demography, Savings